Friday, November 7, 2008

Zilch Guide to Probability

Zilch is a game based on skill and luck (which means for a lot of users, luck). I'm not gonna bother with a game description, but here's a small probability guide that might help you out.

Chance of not getting a 1 or a 5 every roll:

# die avaliable | % chance
6 | 11%
5 | 16%
4 | 26%
3 | 33%
2 | 48%
1 | 67%
I gathered some data (5 games) on the opponent on "cautious" and here's the results:
Rolls for under 500 points: 62%
Rolls for under 400 points: 41%
Rolls for 300 or under: 33%
Rolls for a zilch: 24%
Average gain per turn: 480.59

I didn't really need to make complicated rules for myself to beat the cautious opponent. Basically, I just don't roll when I have over 300 points and I have 3 or less die avaliable. If I get a winning set like a pair of die and a 5, I don't roll again. In a nutshell, avoid zilches at all costs.

BTW, for those who are wondering where the card guide is, I didn't write one because Greg didn't feel like putting a character as one of the challenges.


Re4beast said...

Its actually 16 percent for a 6

EsIeX3 said...

and your point?